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Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite...

Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite Reform makes plans for early election A person close to Reform says the party has become increasingly concerned Andy Burnham might call an election to take advantage of the recent decline in Nigel Farage’s fortunes triggered by revelations about the party’s finances They express concerns that Reform won’t be ready and has yet to create policy in key areas like foreign affairs, defence and education, and that it’s missing spokespeople on important beats As a result Reform is rapidly drawing up a skeleton manifesto and speeding up candidate selection, running assessment centres over the summer, they say Reform will also try to regain some impetus from Burnham by launching an attack on small-boat crossings next week A Reform official confirms the party is speeding up candidate selection and that work is ongoing to produce a manifesto, but insists they’re optimistic about their chances should Burnham call an early election

Alex Wickham: BP’s decision to sell its North Sea...

NEW by @Joe_Mayes @MitchellFerman @EllenAMilligan BP’s decision to sell its North Sea business leaves a pivotal decision for Andy Burnham and marks a critical moment for Britain’s dwindling oil and gas industry North Sea producers have criticised Tory and Labour governments since the 2022 windfall tax, arguing investing there is no longer competitive Trump wants Burnham to change tack and the new PM let the president believe he would in their first call But the reality is it’s politically contentious with environmentalists and Labour MPs opposing new drilling. That’s now been made even harder by the wildfires in Europe Despite his rhetoric it appears Burnham is in reality just looking at doing what Keir Starmer likely would have done eventually, ie tie-backs, Jackdaw and Rosebank, rather than any major change in policy That risks upsetting both sides: Trump, trade unions and the oil and gas industry for whom it might not be enough, and the green-minded side who don’t want any more drilling BP’s move “should be a defining moment for the new prime minister,” says Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. “This decision is another stark reminder that confidence in the UK continental shelf has been badly shaken after years of policy uncertainty, punitive taxation and mixed messages about the future of the industry.”

Pouria Zeraati: Hamas has endorsed the statement...

Important/ Hamas has endorsed the statement of the International Peace for Gaza Group and announced that it will surrender its weapons. This marks another major defeat for the regime on the eve of the next round of all-out attacks by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic on Iranian soil. American sources say that the IRGC had advised the Hamas delegation, which had traveled to Iran for Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral ceremony, not to rush into signing the agreement in the morning and to buy time. However, Hamas ultimately decided not to follow the Islamic Republic's advice and to pursue its own path.

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham says he told...

NEW: Andy Burnham says he told Donald Trump the UK cannot “ignore” the oil in the North Sea when “people are struggling,” and that he’ll take a “pragmatic approach” as PM That appears to confirm Burnham is looking at more drilling in the North Sea, as Trump said last night (and as Bloomberg reported a couple of weeks back) “I indicated in the phone call that we had a week last Monday that I would take a pragmatic approach when it comes to the North Sea, and that is my intention as we go forward from here,” Burnham says “There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that. Hence, me indicating that to the president”

Alex Wickham: Essential @PhilAldrick analysis...

Essential @PhilAldrick analysis The Bank of England and by extension Andy Burnham have a Trump problem as the Iran war blocks interest rate cuts It means homeowners have to live with higher interest costs and jobs will be lost, bad news for the “cost of living government”. Read between the lines and the BoE’s message today is that it’s all Trump’s fault Should the war persist “it’s likely that we will have to tighten policy to counter inflationary pressures in the UK economy,” Andrew Bailey said today Without the war we’d have had one or two more rate cuts already, @KallumPickering reckons. Domestically things are better than expected but Brits aren’t feeling it thanks to Iran Bailey indicated the bank doesn’t want to raise rates but will if it has to. The market sees at least one hike this year. It all comes down to Trump
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